Systematic Global Evaluation of Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill for Monthly Precipitation of JMA/MRI-CPS2 Compared with a Statistical Forecast System Using Climate Indices

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system, is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this stud...

Diagnosing CFS2 forecast skill using empirical models of climate prediction and predictability from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal scales

We propose to employ a seamless empirical dynamical modeling approach to construct a state-of-the-art benchmark probabilistic forecast system and to evaluate factors impacting predictability at forecast lead times ranging from weeks to decades in the CFS2 forecast system, including climate drift. The model used, a linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed simultaneous and time-lag correl...

Assessing the idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

[1] The 24-year retrospective forecast data set from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is analyzed to study its idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature under its current configuration. The analysis approach assumes the forecasting model and system to be predicted share exactly the same physics so that the idealized predictability is calculated and serves as the upper limi...